Do Large Language Models Know When Not to Answer in Medical QA?

AbstractUncertainty awareness is essential for large language models (LLMs), particularly in safety-critical domains such as medicine where erroneous or hallucinatory outputs can cause harm. Yet most evaluations remain centered on accuracy, offering limited insight into model confidence and its relation to abstention. In this work, we present preliminary experiments that combine conformal prediction with abstention-augmented and perturbed variants of medical QA datasets. Our early results suggest a positive link between uncertainty estimates and abstention decisions, with this effect amplified under higher difficulty and adversarial perturbations. These findings highlight abstention as a practical handle for probing model reliability in medical QA.