Approximate Inference in Logical Credal Networks

The Logical Credal Network or LCN is a recent probabilistic logic designed for effective aggregation and reasoning over multiple sources of imprecise knowledge. An LCN specifies a set of probability distributions over all interpretations of a set of logical formulas for which marginal and conditional probability bounds on their truth values are known. Inference in LCNs involves the exact solution of a non-convex non-linear program defined over an exponentially large number of non-negative real valued variables and, therefore, is limited to relatively small problems. In this paper, we present ARIEL -- a novel iterative message-passing scheme for approximate inference in LCNs. Inspired by classical belief propagation for graphical models, our method propagates messages that involve solving considerably smaller local non-linear programs. Experiments on several classes of LCNs demonstrate clearly that ARIEL yields high quality solutions compared with exact inference and scales to much larger problems than previously considered.