Modeling Personalized Retweeting Behaviors for Multi-Stage Cascade Popularity Prediction

Predicting the size of message cascades is critical in various applications, such as online advertising and early detection of rumors. However, most existing deep learning approaches rely on cascade observation, which hinders accurate cascade prediction before message posting. Besides, these approaches overlook personalized retweeting behaviors that reflect users' inclination to retweeting specific types of information. In this study, we propose a universal cascade prediction framework, namely Cascade prediction regarding Multiple Stage (CasMS), that effectively predicts cascade popularity across message generation stage as well as short-term and long-term stages. Unlike previous methods, our approach not only captures users' personalized retweeting behaviors but also incorporates temporal cascade features. We perform the experiments in datasets collected ourselves as well as public datasets. The results show that our method significantly surpasses existing approaches in predicting the cascade during the message generation stage and different time periods in the cascade dynamics.