2020 AAAI AAAI 2020

Day-Ahead Forecasting of Losses in the Distribution Network

Abstract

Abstract We present a commercially deployed machine learning system that automates the day-ahead nomination of the expected grid loss for a Norwegian utility company. It meets several practical constraints and issues related to, among other things, delayed, missing and incorrect data and a small data set. The system incorporates a total of 24 different models that performs forecasts for three sub-grids. Each day one model is selected for making the hourly day-ahead forecasts for each sub-grid. The deployed system reduces the MAE with 41% from 3.68 MW to 2.17 MW per hour from mid July to mid October. It is robust and reduces manual work.

🌉 Interdisciplinary Bridge — Data Science & Analytics and Machine Learning
🧭 Keyword Pioneer — grid loss prediction
🐣 Hot Topic Early Bird — time series forecasting
🐝 Cross-Pollinator — Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science, Computer Vision, Data Science & Analytics, Deep Learning, Healthcare & Medicine, Interdisciplinary, Knowledge & Reasoning, Machine Learning, Mathematics & Optimization, Natural Language Processing, Reinforcement Learning, Robotics, Speech & Audio