An Overview of Uncertainty Calibration for Text Classification and the Role of Distillation

AbstractRecent advances in NLP systems, notably the pretraining-and-finetuning paradigm, have achieved great success in predictive accuracy. However, these systems are usually not well calibrated for uncertainty out-of-the-box. Many recalibration methods have been proposed in the literature for quantifying predictive uncertainty and calibrating model outputs, with varying degrees of complexity. In this work, we present a systematic study of a few of these methods. Focusing on the text classification task and finetuned large pretrained language models, we first show that many of the finetuned models are not well calibrated out-of-the-box, especially when the data come from out-of-domain settings. Next, we compare the effectiveness of a few widely-used recalibration methods (such as ensembles, temperature scaling). Then, we empirically illustrate a connection between distillation and calibration. We view distillation as a regularization term encouraging the student model to output uncertainties that match those of a teacher model. With this insight, we develop simple recalibration methods based on distillation with no additional inference-time cost. We show on the GLUE benchmark that our simple methods can achieve competitive out-of-domain (OOD) calibration performance w.r.t. more expensive approaches. Finally, we include ablations to understand the usefulness of components of our proposed method and examine the transferability of calibration via distillation.