Word Surprisal Correlates with Sentential Contradiction in LLMs

AbstractLarge language models (LLMs) continue to achieve impressive performance on reasoning benchmarks, yet it remains unclear how their predictions capture semantic consistency between sentences. We investigate the important open question of whether word-level surprisal correlates with sentence-level contradiction between a premise and a hypothesis. Specifically, we compute surprisal for hypothesis words across a diverse set of experimental variants, and analyze its association with contradiction labels over multiple datasets and open-source LLMs. Because modern LLMs operate on subword tokens and can not directly produce reliable surprisal estimates, we introduce a token-to-word decoding algorithm that extends theoretically grounded probability estimation to open-vocabulary settings. Experiments show a consistent and statistically significant positive correlation between surprisal and contradiction across models and domains. Our analysis also provides new insights into the capabilities and limitations of current LLMs. Together, our findings suggest that surprisal can localize sentence-level inconsistency at the word level, establishing a quantitative link between lexical uncertainty and sentential semantics. We plan to release our code and data upon publication.